Wednesday, September 2, 2020

Quicksand shows Helga’s as a figure of a Mulatto with a constant confli

Nella Larsen manages the emergency of racial character Helga has all through Quicksand. She remarks on the life of a mulatto lady at a severe dark southern school who needs to get herself. Larsen bargains Helga as the ‘tragic mulatto’ from the earliest starting point of the novel setting obviously the perspectives on dark racial attributes. The appalling mulatto being a cliché thought of somebody bound to limbo between being highly contrasting. Helga shows, a failure to adjust anyplace long enough to find whether she is dark or white. The primary issue of the novel is society’s rules seeing things as dark or white with no solid medium. Helga’s sexuality comes into this as she can't focus on relations feeling things are absent from her life. The battle that is principally at strife is that of Helga’s relationship with James and Naxos. This makes her disappointed in that she is limited from herself and needs to fight with both James’ goals of h er and her own. Larsen utilizes Axel Olsen as a figure that speaks to the white goals that are available in Helga’s fight. He describes how her ‘white’ wants and character ought to be. Some portion of the contention of self is that of Helga’s relationship with Dr Anderson he is apparently part of the clash of her dark self. It is his assessments of her that keep her from genuinely doing what she needs, it is dissatisfaction that keeps Helga. Another significant part of this book in screening the constraint of Helga’s stifled sexiness is her inevitable marriage of the Reverent. The last angle is her dress and the way that she acts, it is at first stifled and comes gradually to be released by her. These components are largely substantial in indicating the contention of race in causing the suppression and exhib... ...g with the otherworldly sentiment of being dark. This reality that she can't discover a balance is expected to people around her, for example, James, Dr Anderson, Anne, Axel Olsen and the Reverend. They all are on the dark or white scale and she just fits in the middle. The book never closes her battle, so there is as yet the topic of whether she will ever discover her personality. The school of Naxos makes conditioned thoughts, despite the fact that it is clear she never concurred with them she despite everything can't get away from the convictions that they held. Thusly she is stuck in a sort of limbo. Dr Anderson is the main man she genuinely can relate yet it is this need for more that stops her joy with him. Bliss is the greatest issue for Helga and while she can't locate an accommodating parity in shutting she has the most significant activity of all raising kids, she is the persuasive job in their lives.

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Assessing and Classifying/Diagnosing 16 to 20 Year Olds

Subject: Problems identified with evaluating and characterizing/diagnosing 16 to multi year olds with examples of impulsivity, unsteadiness in relational connections, mental self portrait and influence. Chapter by chapter list 1. Presentation 2. What is Borderline character issue 3. Formative phases of Borderline Disorder on 16-multi year olds 4. Issues related with diagnosing and arranging Borderline character Disorder 5. How its examples influence mental self portrait and relational connections 6. End 7. References 1. IntroductionIn this article I will talk about the issues identified with surveying and grouping/diagnosing 16-multi year olds with examples of impulsivity, shakiness in relational connections, mental self portrait and impact. Before I will talk about the above articulation, we need to comprehend what Borderline Personality issue. â€Å"Borderline character issue is an inescapable example of insecurity in relational connections, mental self view and feelings. Individu als with Borderline Personality Disorder are typically exceptionally incautious (Grohol,J, 2010).The American Psychiatric Association (2009) found that the Borderline Personality Disorder is a genuine mental issue which is hard to treat and is ineffectively comprehended. Over the long haul obviously they are taking a shot at discovering q hypothetical idea with the assistance of specialists. 2. What is Borderline Personality Disorder? As indicated by the APA (2000) â€Å"Borderline Personality Disorder is an unavoidable example of shakiness of relational connections, mental self view, and impacts and a checked impulsivity starting in early adulthood and present in an assortment of contexts†.It is a basic issue, an individual with this issue will have an assortment of manifestations where they maintain a strategic distance from genuine occasions, they have temperamental serious relational connections where some of the time they are content with whom they are identifying with, and afterward the other second they are disappointed with the relationship. They have a picture unsettling influence where they truly don't comprehend what their identity is, the thing that they are about and what they need for themselves. 3. Formative phase of Borderline Personality Disorder on 16-multi year olds The improvement of Borderline Personality Disorder isn't actually known, since it is hard to diagnose.Psychiatrist and clinicians additionally think that its confounded to know how it creates. There are different elements that can create it, for example, organic, social and hereditary components, since it includes examples of Depression, Bipolar, Anxiety and other character issue. Marginal Personality Disorder appears at a later phase of one’s life however it really begins when the individual is still extremely youthful. The connections at the youthful age the individual has had have an effect on its turn of events. Most side effects are outrageous at mid 20’ s.According to Goodman,M. et al. (2009) Case Presentation of â€Å"V† who was determined to have Borderline Personality Disorder, they discovered that when ‘V’ was a youngster she was grumpy and curiously delicate to physical encounters, reacted with outrage and now and again free valuation for her environmental factors which these scenes happened from 3-4 times each week, which demonstrates that these constant activities had an effect towards â€Å"V† being determined to have marginal Personality Disorder. 4.Problems related with diagnosing and arranging Borderline character Disorder Most individuals who have character issue or a general psychological well-being issues they don't search out clinical wellbeing at beginning periods when the they can see that something isn't right yet rather they leave it, however possibly begin acting when the psychological issue begin influencing their everyday living. In such cases it very well may be hard to help individ uals in a brief timeframe on the grounds that the turmoil may have influenced an enormous part of their lives which will set aside effort for healing.With Borderline Personality Disorder to determine most patients are misdiagnosed to have different disarranges identified with it like discouragement or Bipolar or wind up being analyzed at a later phase of their lives. Marginal Personality Disorder is treated by proficient emotional well-being specialists and they additionally experience issues in diagnosing it in 16-multi year olds, since this issue includes examples of different character issue, so at this age it is still ahead of schedule to know precisely, there perhaps still questions, in light of the fact that the individual analyzed must have had monotonous activities of either self destruction, sorrow, tension and Bipolar.At the age of 16-20 years the therapist or clinician may very well analyze and state you just have one of the clutters referenced previously. As per the Amer ican Psychiatry Association, the individual must be 18 years of age to be determined to have Borderline Personality Disorder, so fundamentally that implies at 16-20 years the confusion is at its beginning periods, and may be hard for the therapist to effortlessly analyze it. It is at early grown-up hood between 22 years and upwards the therapist can without much of a stretch get from the progressing examples of incautious practices. . How its examples influence mental self portrait and relational connections People with Borderline Personality Disorder are as often as possible furious and are hard to live with because of their activities and indications of incautious conduct, here and there they are cheerful now and again they are distraught, these examples can truly befuddle a family member and making it hard to endure such an individual. 5. 1 Family and Friends Family and companions are generally the first to be influenced when their relative has Borderline Personality Disorder.Sin ce clinicians and therapists require some serious energy in diagnosing this issue it gets hard for the family to manage it since they don't comprehend what's going on with them. Individuals with Borderline Personality Disorder are influenced in the manner they think and see things and can influence the manner in which they see their loved ones. Since it is likewise brought about by the manner in which they have been sustained at a youthful age, those encounters can influence the manner in which individuals treat them. A portion of their loved ones can't generally stay aware of their indiscreet practices, and wind up hating and dismissing them.They are likewise dreadful of how they will wind up since they are included additionally in hazardous acts. 5. 2 Self Image The manner in which one sees themselves decides how they will react and interprete circumstances they face. Individuals with Borderline Personality Disorder don't have faith in themselves since they are frightful and self- destructive, so in certain occurrences they need profitability. They can't control circumstances they are associated with because of their rash practices, and they are unpleasant and face numerous different difficulties because of their personalities.Their various examples influence even their professions, one second they are gainful and great the following second they are on a defeat. With the loss of some nearby family members because of their conduct can prompt their adjustment in mental self portrait, driving them next connections to be delicate. They as a rule anticipate a great deal from individuals and in the event that they don't get what they need they will wind up being frustrated. The adjustment in mental self view may prompt them thinking they are immaterial and they are not required by anybody. 6. ConclusionThere are issues related in diagnosing16-multi year olds with Borderline Personality Disorder, since it is an unavoidable examples of precariousness which incorporat es an assortment of different issue, making it hard for clinicians and therapists to analyze it. Its advancement it is as yet not actually known and appears at a later stage even idea it begins at a more youthful age. It does likewise influence the relationship s the individual has with their companions, family and furthermore the manner in which they see themselves because of their conduct. 7. References 1. Goodman, M. , Hazlett, E. A. , New, A. S. , Koenigsberg, H.W. , and Siever, L. (2009). Calming the compelling tempest of Borderline Personality Disorder. American Journal of Psychiatry, 166,522-528. 2. Grohol, J. , (2010). Marginal Personality Disorder. Psych Central. Retrived on May 04, 2012, from http://psychcentral. com/lib/2007/indications of-fringe character issue/3. Gunderson, J. G. (2009). Marginal Personality Disorder: Ontogeny of a finding. American Journal of Psychiatry, 166,530-539. 4. Kernberg, O. F. , Michels, R. (2009) Borderline Personality Disorder. American Jour nal of Psychiatry, 166,505-508.

Friday, August 21, 2020

The Great Gatsby Essays - The Great Gatsby, Literature, Free Essays

The Great Gatsby Essays - The Great Gatsby, Literature, Free Essays The Great Gatsby In today society, numerous individuals like to follow the current. They need to get the wave. Which mean, it doesn't matter if things were positive or negative, set in stone, they just follow and do them with no reasoning. In this way, there are not very numerous individuals might want to be an ordinary, keen nor unbiased individual. Nonetheless, in the novel, The Great Gatsby, by Scott Fitzgerald, one of the character name is Nike Carroway, he was the acceptable and unbiased storyteller. It was on the grounds that, in the novel, he broke down everything with respect to precision of perception. In The Great Gatsby, when Mr.Gatsby disclosed to Vick he needed to restore the past over again with his sweetheart Daisy, Nike Carroway cautioned him to surrender it, since it was inconceivable. Unforturately, Mr.Gatsby was not trust it. So toward the end, Mr.Gatsby's fantasy despite everything had not worked out as expected in light of the fact that Daisy didn't say a final farewell to Tom and go with him. It very well may be found in the last part on the novel, when Gatsby was murder, Daisy went to elsewhere with her better half, and didn't go to Gatsby's funeray. I called up Daisy half and hour after we discovered him, called her naturally and without hersitation. In any case she and Tom had left early that evening, and taken things with them. In this way, Nike Carroway's examination was directly by these clear perception. Be that as it may, Nike Carroway is a decent storyteller, he sees everything occur and doesn't confide in everyone without any problem. So during the individuals examine about something at once, he doesn't accept it is valid. After he demonstrates it, he will acknowledge reality. Also, when Nike went to Gatsby's gathering, there is a flushed woman telling everybody Gatsby slaughtered a man previously. Someone revealed to me they thought he slaughtered a man once. Likewise, there is one more woman said that Gatsby was a German government operative: It is more that he was a German government operative during the war. Nike heard it, yet whenever Nike got an opportunity to have a lunch with Gatsby, he told Nike, he was an Oxford man and show him that battled in World War One. At that point Nike knew Gatsby was definitely not a German Spy nor a killer. Besides, toward the finish of the novel, when Daisy drove Gatsby's vehicle and executed Mrs.Wilson in a fender bender, Nike's first however Gatsby executed Mrs.Wilson. In any case, after Gatsby let him know everything at that point, at that point Nike was thinking and talk about among Gatsby and Tom's talking, and make his own end. In this manner, Nike was a mindful man and his isn't hesitant to confront anything around him. By these realities, he had a clear brain and dependable in his perceptions, so it can make individuals trust Nike Carroways was an unbiased and clear psyche storyteller of this novel, since this can be found in Nike's character. In the novel, Nike was likewise an impartial storyteller as well becasue he is the storyteller who depicted everything unmistakably and precisely. He was trustful in light of the fact that he portrayed everything with no close to home perspective; By the way, all through the entire story, he didn't resistances for any characters nor put any of his self-feeling in it. That is the reason he is a character who strived for lack of bias. Then again, when Mr.Gatsby reveals to Tom that Daisy will leave Tom since she cherishes Tom no more, it's loaded with fire's atomsphere and feeling. I have something to let you know, old game started Gatsby. Be that as it may, Daisy speculated his goal. Please don't! she intruded on vulnerably. Please allows all return home. For what reason don't we as a whole return home? That's a smart thought. I got up. Come on, Tom. No one needs a beverage. I need to realize what Mr.Gatsby needs to let me know. Your better half doesn't cherish you, said Gatsby. She's never adored you. She cherishes me. Around then, if Nike was not in an impartial position, he must assistance Gatsby or Tom. In any case, he didn't participate in the contention among Gatsby and Tom. He simply put himself in a corner, keeping calm and see whatelse would occurred in page 131 to page 135. Along these lines, we can see that Nike was an impartial man and

Tuesday, May 26, 2020

Is There Any Place for Everyman in the 21st Century - Literature Essay Samples

Everyman provides the perfect example of why allegory must be approached carefully in order to make an impact; a story with a powerful message is very often dependent upon timing. The timing of a play about a devastating plague sweeping across Europe would have had far more impact during the Middle Ages than it would now. Allegorical drama by definition should be less dependent upon timing than dramatic interpretations of specific events situated within a historical context. Stripped down to the very basics—the most elemental of fundamental character—and divorced from any precise historical context, Everyman should be expected to maintain a relatively stable and predictable impact on audiences regardless of whether performed for Medieval audiences, Renaissance audiences or 21st century audiences. What a 21st century introduction to Everyman reveals, however, is that allegory can become just as much a prisoner to context as more direct individualized subjects. Perhaps, the fault lies not with the creation, but the interpretation. Perhaps a more innovative and artistically daring production aesthetic would be enough to rip Everyman from its natural place in the order as a representative of fundamentalist Catholic theology to make it just as relevant to modern audiences as it would have been to audiences in its first few centuries of existence. This seems highly unlikely, however. The historical record is one that suggests Everyman is the only â€Å"morality play† to consistently find audiences even into the modern day. One imagines, of course, that the overwhelming bulk of these modern performances have taken place not inside traditional theaters, but inside churches. Even though Everyman is an allegorical work that could arguably be reinterpreted as one not specifically Christian, it hardly seems likely. Which brings about the question of the extent to which it should be considered allegorical. Consider more modern source: Invasion of the Body Snatchers is not merely symbolic, but allegorical because its plot can be interpreted from both ideological sides of its very definite historical context. One can watch the original black and white film and argue equally well that the body snatchers are allegorical symbols of communists or witch-hunting anti-communists. Everyman, by contrast, aggressively forwards a definite Christian—and a definite pre-Reformation Christian—message. If allegory is supposed to be by definition somewhat ambiguous by virtue of existing primarily within the realm of metaphor, then Everyman fails the test at least on that account. This fact is important because the basis by which it has been determined the experience of reading or watching a performance of Everyman today is a comprehensive failure in terms Aristotelian expectations for entertainment. Characters named for and personifying abstract concepts like Knowledge, Good Deed, Fellowship and the like are doomed to disappoint audiences raised on Aristotelian expectation of character growth, audience recognition of their own problems and a sense of catharsis. To be sure, these characters that are so one-dimensional and lacking in depth and recognition turn out to be surprisingly humorous. One cannot help but head into a â€Å"morality play† with expectations of the humorless tone of a church sermon. A morality play by definition exists solely for one purpose above all else: to teach audiences a lesson—not even to teach them a lesson, really, but to reinforce a lesson already drilled into audience members after years of hearing sermons on the same topic. Since these were not sermons of the modern churches, but medieval sermons from churches far less inclined toward injecting humor, the appearance of comedy in Everyman is somewhat jarring to modern audiences, but m ost assuredly welcome. Nevertheless, rare would be the modern audience member who isn’t desperately hoping for some sort of jump outside the constrictions of the characters who are handcuffed to the rigidity of allegorical construction. Emotional involvement in the story that unfolds in Everyman is difficult if not downright impossible. This presents an enormous problem for anyone raised on the heavy emotional engagement of stage drama and novels that have been produced since Everyman was written. Hollywood films have only reinforced this expectation of finding an emotional connection to characters to the point of becoming something of an addiction. The result of this conditioned response by audiences to require stories that allow emotional connections has been a noticeable reduction in the influence of avant-garde entertainment which places intellectual engagement above emotional engagement. One can well imagine that Everyman represented an example of emotional engagement in the first few centuries of its production history and the irony of its now belonging to the avant-garde requiring a more intellectual connection should not be lost. Regardless, that leap to enjoying Everyman as an exercise in intellectual drama also requires effort on the part of modern audiences because its actual intellectual content is just as lacking in the depth and the potential for multiple interpretations as the characters acting out its central intellectual proposition. Everyman has aged past its ability to provide the emotional engagement mainstream audiences require as a matter of course while also failing in its potential to be reinvented as a postmodernist avant-garde intellectual artistic experiment.

Saturday, May 16, 2020

Should Marijuana Be Legalized - 1219 Words

Should Marijuana be legalized in the UK? Marijuana can be viewed in two ways: an addictive illegal high or a medical treatment drug. Marijuana first and foremost is an illegal drug, and can land you up to 7 years in prison just for possession or up to 14 years in prison for the supplying and production of the drug. However, marijuana is not all bad. It can be used for medical purposes (shown in certain states of the USA). Many people are unaware of this, so this leads us to the question: Marijuana; legislation or a continued ban? Marijuana has been found to aid certain medical conditions and in the US, 23 states have legalized the use of the medical extracts from the plant. For example, ‘cannabis oil’. Glaucoma is a disease which can harm†¦show more content†¦The recreational use of marijuana worries many people. Dating back thousands of years, to the first recorded use of marijuana it was used as an anaesthetic to numb the pain of surgeries. However progressively throughout the centuries people have found to take advantages of the initial purpose of the drug. Many methods can be used to reap the high benefits of the drug, these can be through smoking of the drug, either through cigarette like called ‘joints’ or through a ‘bong’ or ‘pipe’, which are glass-based objects. Also, marijuana is edible. Many recipes can involve marijuana to be used as a drug, which can include ‘hash brownies’, ‘marijuana gum’ and other forms. Acco rding to FRANK, marijuana is a short term high and allows the user to feel calm and chilled out. However, according to them marijuana in the long term can mess with your body. For example, it can reduce and deteriorate the growth hormones in the body. Also, in the short term can leave the user in a state of paranoia. This is what many people worry about if marijuana was to be legalized. However, it can be argued that sedatives, e.g. Nitrous oxide ‘laughing gas’, used for medical purposes i.e. removal of wisdom teeth are also similar to the short term effects of marijuana. Both users experience relaxation and in a state of euphoria. Nonetheless, these

Wednesday, May 6, 2020

Nickel and Dimed Book Review - 1182 Words

Can someone really live and prosper in American receiving minimal income? Can someone create a good lifestyle for themselves on just six to seven dollars an hour? In Nickel and Dimed Barbara Ehrenreich goes undercover to find out if it is indeed possible. Giving herself only $1,000 she leaves the lifestyle that she has come accustomed too and goes to join all the people living the low class way of life. Before setting out, she gave herself a list of rules she had to follow so that her experience would be as real as it could be. Her first rule was when looking for a job she couldn t mention the skills she had learned from her education. Second, she had to take the highest paying job that was being offered to her. Third, she had to live†¦show more content†¦Days go by and she s getting tired form the physical labor that comes with the house cleaning service. She explains what she was doing with her co-workers at the cleaning service and calls in sick after her last day at the nursing home. In Chapter 3 she starts over again in Minnesota. She finds herself lucky here because she gets to stay at a friends while there out of town, saving her the trouble of finding housing right away. Although, after her friends return, here she ends up having the most trouble finding a place to live. She lives in a hotel throughout her experience in Minnesota. This really messes up her money situation. Ehrenreich applies for many different jobs and ends up choosing between Wal-Mart and Menards. She picks Wal-Mart and find herself working in the women s department organizing and hanging up clothes. She realizes that she must became friendly with the dressing room attendants in order to make her job easier. Again her supervisors constantly get on her about wasting time. She uses her break times to talk to her fellow workers about a union but quits before really getting anything started. In the end Barbara ended up breaking all of the rules she had set for herself but she feel s that she did a good job at her project. She was alarmed by the way that some of her co-workers lived and felt that she learned a lot from her experiences. I really enjoyed reading this book. It truly gives you aShow MoreRelatedAnalysis Of Christopher Doob s The First Edition Of Social Inequality And Social Stratification 1119 Words   |  5 Pagesstratification in US Society. The author structures this book in the direction towards a theoretical concept that attracts the reality of social inequality and stratification as a whole. Doob dissects this books into eleven chapters given that each chapter examines the inequality of stratification. Also during the readings of this book Doob used plenty of data to show the socioeconomic strata revolved around the history of America. In relation to this book the assigned four readings in class â€Å"Class A guideRead MoreBarbara Ehrenreich s Nickel And Dimed2236 Words   |  9 PagesIntroduction Barbara Ehrenreich’s Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By In America was the first book of its type that I’ve ever read, a real life analysis of what its like to â€Å"live in poverty,† working minimum wage jobs trying to make ends meet day in and day out. It was an intriguing story of how a woman with plenty went on to document how she lived without and I found that Ehrenreich’s commentary throughout the book offered a refreshing perspective to the usual conversation that surrounds poverty;Read MoreNickel And Dimed By Barbara Ehrenreich1670 Words   |  7 PagesNickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich is a book about trying to survive while living on a minimum wage salaryWhen first reading this book, I thought it was just going to be another book assigned that I just didn’t want to read After reading the first few pages, I was very intrigued, I began reading way ahead what was assigned for the week I m glad I actually got into this book because it made it so much easier to read She goes and starts her life over in different cities in order to see if itRead MoreNickel and Dimed by Barbara Ehrenreich1721 Words   |  7 Pagesplace herself in the position of her subjects, Ehrenreich strived to see if she were able to survive on the minimal income provided by a series of low level and low paying jobs. In was her foreknowledge of laws and the inclusion of these laws in Nickel and Dimed that brought about exposing historical and present-day 21st century contradictory practices, laws, and regulations that exploit the poor working class (if not through her experiment but by the subjects’ honest experience). In addition to exposingRead MoreMind at Work by Mike Roses982 Words   |  4 PagesWe’ve looked at work from many different views in this class. From the bottom in Mike Roses book, Mind at Work which looks at the, on the jobsite skills and intelligence needed in the work force. Along with the way our society and education play a role in that. 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Through her book, she supports that minimum wage salary is insufficient means of survival and leads to a difficult lifeRead MoreReview : Nickel And Dimed1935 Words   |  8 PagesWill Eifling-Page 1 Book Review: Nickel and Dimed: On (not) Getting by in America What is most interesting about Barbara Ehrenreich?s journalistic venture is that she worked in a white color position as an accomplished journalist, but her immediate family came from a meager financial background. It appears as though she had a grasp on the hardships of poverty in America, which is why she wanted to dig deeper. Ehrenreich?s sister had a series of low paid jobs, her father worked in the coal mineRead MoreNickel and Dimed Essay1819 Words   |  8 PagesBarbara Ehrenreichs intent in the book Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America exhibited how minimum wage isnt enough for Americans to get by on and that theres no hope for the lower class. Her main objective was achieved by living out the life of the working poor. During the three cases studies she worked many jobs that are worked by many that are simply striving to live day to day. The jobs she had didnt generate sufficient income to avoid or help her rise out of poverty, in factRead MoreNickel and Dimed o n (Not) Getting By in America1968 Words   |  8 Pages Spotlighting Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America Throughout the years, the ability to survive in the American economy without a college education has been diminishing. The employment opportunities now available to many Americans without college degrees are called â€Å"unskilled† jobs. These forms of employment are often unstable and offer low pay without much of a change for advancement within the company . Low income families are often constrained by many hurdles that do not allowRead MoreTaking a Closer Look at Poverty1416 Words   |  6 PagesRelative Poverty is â€Å"a level of economic deprivation that exists when people may be able to afford basic necessities but are still unable to maintain an average Standard of living. A great example of Relative Poverty is located in the article: Nickel and Dimed written by Barbara Ehrenreich. Barbara Ehrenreich performed a brilliant experiment in which she had to experience what life is like only profiting $2.43 an hour including tips. Barbara Ehrenreich decided to work for a family restaurant named

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

Forecasting Notes free essay sample

Qualitative models incorporate subjective factors into the forecasting model. Qualitative models are useful when subjective factors are important. When quantitative data are difficult to obtain, qualitative models may be appropriate. 2.? Approaches are qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative is relatively subjective; quantitative uses numeric models. 3.? Short-range (under 3 months), medium-range (3 months to 3 years), and long-range (over 3 years). 4.? The steps that should be used to develop a forecasting system are: (a)? Determine the purpose and use of the forecast (b)? Select the item or quantities that are to be forecasted (c)? Determine the time horizon of the forecast (d)? Select the type of forecasting model to be used (e)? Gather the necessary data (f)? Validate the forecasting model (g)? Make the forecast (h)? Implement and evaluate the results 5.? Any three of: sales planning, production planning and budgeting, cash budgeting, analyzing various operating plans. There is no mechanism for growth in these models; they are built exclusively from historical demand values. We will write a custom essay sample on Forecasting Notes or any similar topic specifically for you Do Not WasteYour Time HIRE WRITER Only 13.90 / page Such methods will always lag trends. .? Exponential smoothing is a weighted moving average where all previous values are weighted with a set of weights that decline exponentially. 8.? MAD, MSE, and MAPE are common measures of forecast accuracy. To find the more accurate forecasting model, forecast with each tool for several periods where the demand outcome is known, and calculate MSE, MAPE, or MAD for each. The smaller error indicates the better forecast. 9.? The Delphi technique involves: (a)? Assembling a group of experts in such a manner as to preclude direct communication between identifiable members of the group (b)? Assembling the responses of each expert to the questions or problems of interest (c)? Summarizing these responses (d)? Providing each expert with the summary of all responses (e)? Asking each expert to study the summary of the responses and respond again to the questions or problems of interest. (f)? Repeating steps (b) through (e) several times as necessary to obtain convergence in responses. If convergence has not been obtained by the end of the fourth cycle, the responses at that time should probably be accepted and the process terminated—little additional convergence is likely if the process is continued. 0.? A time series model predicts on the basis of the assumption that the future is a function of the past, whereas an associative model incorporates into the model the variables of factors that might influence the quantity being forecast. 11.? A time series is a sequence of evenly spaced data points with the four components of trend, seasonality, cyclical, and random vari ation. 12.? When the smoothing constant, (, is large (close to 1. 0), more weight is given to recent data; when ( is low (close to 0. 0), more weight is given to past data. 13.? Seasonal patterns are of fixed duration and repeat regularly. Cycles vary in length and regularity. Seasonal indices allow â€Å"generic† forecasts to be made specific to the month, week, etc. , of the application. 14.? Exponential smoothing weighs all previous values with a set of weights that decline exponentially. It can place a full weight on the most recent period (with an alpha of 1. 0). This, in effect, is the naive approach, which places all its emphasis on last period’s actual demand. 15.? Adaptive forecasting refers to computer monitoring of tracking signals and self-adjustment if a signal passes its present limit. 16.? Tracking signals alert the user of a forecasting tool to periods in which the forecast was in significant error. 17.? The correlation coefficient measures the degree to which the independent and dependent variables move together. A negative value would mean that as X increases, Y tends to fall. The variables move together, but move in opposite directions. 18.? Independent variable (x) is said to explain variations in the dependent variable (y). 19.? Nearly every industry has seasonality. The seasonality must be filtered out for good medium-range planning (of production and inventory) and performance evaluation. 20.? There are many examples. Demand for raw materials and component parts such as steel or tires is a function of demand for goods such as automobiles. 21.? Obviously, as we go farther into the future, it becomes more difficult to make forecasts, and we must diminish our reliance on the forecasts. Ethical Dilemma This exercise, derived from an actual situation, deals as much with ethics as with forecasting. Here are a few points to consider:  ¦ No one likes a system they don’t understand, and most college presidents would feel uncomfortable with this one. It does offer the advantage of depoliticizing the funds al- location if used wisely and fairly. But to do so means all parties must have input to the process (such as smoothing constants) and all data need to be open to everyone.  ¦ The smoothing constants could be selected by an agreed-upon criteria (such as lowest MAD) or could be based on input from experts on the board as well as the college.  ¦ Abuse of the system is tied to assigning alphas based on what results they yield, rather than what alphas make the most sense.  ¦ Regression is open to abuse as well. Models can use many years of data yielding one result or few years yielding a totally different forecast.